Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.832276 3.417987 4.075258 4.864605 5.783777 6.817192 8.063692
2025-04-13 1.964464 2.692806 3.600481 4.802938 6.340712 8.226882 10.698931
2025-04-20 1.551984 2.368123 3.477393 5.067837 7.257079 10.127601 14.131519
2025-04-27 1.246572 2.092612 3.333454 5.237446 8.025367 11.887475 17.553298
2025-05-04 1.049320 1.917537 3.278834 5.493274 8.909661 13.863843 21.438967
2025-05-11 0.844437 1.677272 3.070421 5.466347 9.348266 15.220588 24.545605
2025-05-18 0.658836 1.422608 2.784712 5.257507 9.456377 16.067074 26.942266
2025-05-25 0.509970 1.196779 2.501278 4.996854 9.428293 16.672689 28.989550
2025-06-01 0.423075 1.070313 2.370628 4.975200 9.782819 17.899436 32.090215
2025-06-08 0.358637 0.974646 2.279420 5.006955 10.223762 19.292829 35.553266
2025-06-15 0.301343 0.880024 2.171803 4.987577 10.561889 20.528565 38.832283
2025-06-22 0.238439 0.754241 1.973917 4.755693 10.469373 20.993897 40.815917
2025-06-29 0.200739 0.683796 1.887847 4.748588 10.820883 22.304307 44.416689
2025-07-06 0.167388 0.615276 1.792997 4.708175 11.101014 23.507434 47.919199
2025-07-13 0.154605 0.603375 1.833561 4.976108 12.040884 26.022246 53.983919
2025-07-20 0.138695 0.576949 1.832172 5.145863 12.789322 28.223236 59.607393
2025-07-27 0.127922 0.564140 1.864168 5.398865 13.740688 30.886992 66.267058
2025-08-03 0.108613 0.515108 1.787266 5.372722 14.071345 32.336800 70.690482
2025-08-10 0.087138 0.449476 1.648439 5.167138 13.970911 32.899191 73.416493
2025-08-17 0.068370 0.385855 1.500002 4.910446 13.718541 33.119027 75.466493
2025-08-24 0.058145 0.353668 1.441992 4.889135 14.021869 34.528505 79.989449
2025-08-31 0.050449 0.329508 1.404792 4.920418 14.455935 36.247883 85.245375
2025-09-07 0.042998 0.302903 1.353043 4.901334 14.760904 37.703590 90.035820